Archive for the 'NBA Trades' Category

Simmons and his awful Wizards trade idea

Published
by
Jake
on February 21, 2008
in NBA Trades and Wizards
. 0 Comments

Gilbert

Bill Simmons has brought back the basketball blog and he kicks things off with a sub-pay entry that outlines some trade ideas he has. It reads like a fairly lame effort to get in on the pre-trade deadline buzz but I’d like to focus on the trade idea he has for the Wizards. Heres the trade:

The Clippers trade Sam Cassell, Corey Maggette, Aaron Williams, their 2008 No. 1 (unprotected) and the rights to Minnesota’s No. 1 in 2008 or 2009 to Washington for Gilbert Arenas, Etan Thomas and Washington’s 2008 No. 1 (lottery-protected).

Alright, so lets examine Simmons’ reasoning and take it apart. His words in bold.

First, the Wizards don’t have to spend max money on Gilbert when it’s unclear if he’s a franchise guy for anything other than a fantasy team.

I dont entirely disagree that Gilbert isn’t worth max money but the market is what the market is. When Rashard Lewis gets a contract worth more then $100 million, players like Gilbert are going to get max deals. Thats just the way it is. And I’d give Gilbert the max over Michael Redd or Lewis everyday of the week and twice on Sunday’s.

Second, when you factor in Gilbert’s new contract with the $13 million they’d save by dumping Etan Thomas, they’d save something like $44 million in 2009 and 2010 combined because Cassell, Williams and Maggette are all expiring deals. (Heading into this summer after this deal, when you include Antwan Jamison’s impending free agency, the Wizards would have a paltry $38 million committed to their 2008-09 payroll. … That’s right, more than enough money to sign a name free agent to replace Gilbert.)

This, of course, makes no sense. So we should trade Gilbert and Thomas (note, I am all in favor of trading Thomas) so that we can have a lot of cap room to go out and sign….a “name” free agent to replace Gilbert? Why go through all of the trouble in the first place, why not just keep Gilbert? This only makes sense if there are free agents available this off-season that are on Gilbert’s level.

Lets look at the list of interesting names. There’s Hawks F Josh Smith (restricted), Bulls F Luol Deng and G Ben Gordon (both restricted), Warriors G Monta Ellis (restricted), 76ers G/F Andre Iguodala (restricted). Also Allen Iverson, Baron Davis, Jermaine O’Neal, Elton Brand and Shawn Marion have early termination options in their contracts.

OK so all the good free agents (other then the ones with opt-outs like Arenas) are restricted, meaning their current teams can choose to match any offers they would get from the Wizards. To be charitable to Simmons we’ll throw out that inconvenient fact and just look at the group as a whole, assuming the Wizards would get whom ever they wanted. Even after doing that, who would you sign that would be better then Arenas, even granting the fact that you’d probably get to pay them less then the max? Monta Ellis? He’s cheap now sure but he’s going to want big money and you can’t say he’s better then Arenas. Luol Deng? Nice player but plays the same position as current Wizards All-Star Caron Butler, so he’s out. Ben Gordan? Please, he’s out too. Josh Smith is a nice player, I’d like to have him on my team, but he’s got a lower PER then Butler and Jamison, that doesn’t help the team. Igoudala is intriguing as well, but he’s only 42nd in the league in PER and frankly is a good player on a below average team, not really sure I’m willing to pay him that much to begin with.

As for Iverson, Davis, O’Neal, Brand and Marion (the players who can opt out of their deals) the only player of that bunch I’d want is Marion and again, we already have an All-Star small forward. It would be a great story for Iverson to return to the DC area but he’s not going to leave Denver; O’Neal has been hurt for 4 years and isn’t an elite player (an observation Simmons himself makes in a later trade proposal); Brand is coming off a serious injury and Baron Davis, while dynamic, is also injury prone and he too is going to want max money in all likelihood. So Bill, about that “name” free agent we can sign with all our new cap room, to replace our current two All-Stars? Who are they exactly? Oh, and Corey Maggette has 2 years left on his deal.

Third, those are two fantastic No. 1s they’re getting back — a lottery pick in 2008 and a probable high lottery pick from Minnesota — and they have an All-Star to replace Arenas on and off the court (Caron Butler).

I wouldn’t mind getting some extra lottery picks, really who would? But you don’t pick up lottery picks just for the heck of it, you get them because you want to draft good, young players. Like Gilbert Arenas. And of course there’s no certainty that draft picks work out, as Wizards fans well know.

And fourth, as crazy as this sounds, they’d actually improve their playoff chances this season by getting Cassell and Maggette since it’s doubtful that Arenas comes back, anyway.

This is actually to my mind the LEAST crazy of Simmons’ points. I think Arenas will come back this year, and play well to boot, but having Cassell and Maggette would certainly help now, as banged up as we are. Cassell and Daniels sharing the point with Maggette either pushing Stevenson to the bench and taking the 2 or Corey being the 6 man and providing instant offense is an attractive picture. But not at the expense of giving up your franchise player, who could be around for 10 more years. Talk about thinking short term Bill.

I guess it all depends on what you think of Gilbert. My buddy House (a Wiz fan) argues that Gilbert is far too popular in D.C. to ever get traded, but he uttered a terse “no comment” for my question, “Yeah, that’s fine and all, but would you have fun playing with him?”

Simmons keeps saying this about Arenas and its just as stupid every time. Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison both made the All-Star team this year with Gilbert out of the lineup. They have both also made the All-Star team with Gilbert IN the lineup. Secondary players can and do succeed on teams with Gilbert. Really, you wouldn’t want to play on a team with Arenas? Really? Thats just dumb.

The Clippers reasons for doing this trade further establish how stupid this would be for the Wizards. Again, his points in bold.

In other words, it’s just like every other season. If they don’t swing for the fences with the Cassell/Maggette contracts and their picks and try to acquire a star player, they will continue not to matter.

So now Gilbert is a star player? I thought he wasn’t worth max money and you wouldn’t want to play on his pickup team?

This trade gives them a foundation of Arenas, Elton Brand, Chris Kaman, Al Thornton and Shaun Livingston that’s legitimately exciting on paper (at least until you remember that three of those guys suffered season-ending injuries), as well as an exciting franchise guy (and a local product) who would generate a ton of interest in Los Angeles on and off the court. Let’s face it — Gilbert was born to play in Hollywood. Literally. It’s the perfect place for him.

I used the italics there to doubly illustrate the about face from Simmons’ previous points. Here he calls Gilbert an “exciting franchise guy”, earlier he said he wasn’t worth max money and he’s not fun to play with. Which is it Bill?

Well that was exhausting. Sorry it was so long but thanks for reading. The takeaway from all this is: DONT LISTEN TO BILL SIMMONS AND HIS AWFUL TRADE IDEAS ERNIE GRUNFIELD!

Wilbon inconsistent on Kobe for Gilbert

Published
by
Jake
on November 10, 2007
in Gilbert Arenas and NBA Trades
. 0 Comments

Let me say to begin with that I’m a big fan of the WaPo and ESPN’s Michael Wilbon, have been since I was a wee child. Having said that, Mr. Wilbon was a tad inconsistent when the Kobe for Gilbert trade rumors were swirling a couple weeks ago. Here’s Wilbon in his column on Friday, November 2:

So, what’s next? If I was serious about trading Kobe I would call the Wizards about Arenas, who at 25 is four years younger than Kobe and much cheaper at the moment.

And if I ran the Wizards I’d say: Thanks, but no.

Start, as everything does, with the money. Arenas makes $11 million while Kobe makes $21 million, plus gets a 15 percent lump sum in a trade clause. So, the Wizards would have to include at least a couple of other players. Maybe Antawn Jamison or two of the younger players the Lakers probably aren’t interested in. Kobe loves Caron Butler, so he probably wouldn’t sign off on any deal (Kobe has to approve the trade) that would send Butler back to the Lakers, and the Wizards would be crazy to deal their best two players anyway. If the Wizards did that they’d be the Washington Lakers, a team with nothing more than Kobe.

Ok, so Wilbon doesn’t think the Wizards should trade Gil for Kobe. Or does he? Here’s Wilbon in WaPo chat he did earlier that same week:

Should be paying attention in class, Md.: Oh Mr. Wilbon! I’ve been surfing the Internet and I saw that there are rumors that the Wiz are considered a dark horse for Kobe. Gilbert for Kobe, is that really a good idea?

Michael Wilbon: I’d do it…Why not? Gilbert’s going to be a free agent soon enough anyway since he can opt out…So why not pursue Kobe? Ernie Grunfeld and Mitch Kupchak are friendly. That makes sense. Question is, what else would the Wizards have to give up? Would you do it for Gilbert and Jamison? I would NOT do it for Gilbert and Caron. Nope. But Gil and ‘Twan…As much as I like those guys and want to see what the team can produce this season, I’d do that. Yep.

Wait, what? Didn’t he say the exact opposite in his column? Now I know everyone has the right to change their mind but it would be nice if Mr. Wilbon would provide some reasoning as to why in the span of a few days he flip-flopped on this.

Gilbert for Kobe?

Published
by
Jake
on October 30, 2007
in Gilbert Arenas, NBA, NBA Trades and Wizards
. 0 Comments

Yesterday I was scrolling through my news aggregator and I stumble upon a post by the guys at DC Sports Report entitled “Kobe to DC?“. Naturally this piqued my interest so I clicked through and the post was centered around a blurb in Sam Smith’s column in the Chicago Tribune.

Here’s what Smith wrote:

Agent Zero going Hollywood?
One general manager on the periphery of the Bryant talks says he believes the “dark horse” to make a deal with the Lakers is the Washington Wizards. The consensus is the Wizards have hit a plateau, but have the star power in Gilbert Arenas to make a deal.

Arenas is talking about opting out of his contract after this season. He’s from Los Angeles and has become a star, one of the league’s highest-scoring players and an engaging personality who would embrace the Hollywood scene. He would meet the Lakers’ demands for an All-Star player if they trade Bryant.

“Watch out for them,” the general manager said, meaning the Wizards.

The Lakers probably would want a power forward, which the Wizards don’t have. The biggest obstacle, though, may be Bryant’s no-trade clause, along with the fact he hasn’t indicated any interest in Washington. Still, with Bryant, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, the Wizards would have a three-star set that could match up in the East.

Now Sam Smith is fairly well known for tossing out all sorts of trade rumors, thats basically his whole shtick, so I took that with a grain of salt. But then DC Sports Report updated their post to include a Marc Stein quote from an ESPN.com chat he did:

Real enough that I wouldn’t call it a rumor. Washington’s interest, I’m told, is super genuine. What we don’t know yet is whether Kobe would be amenable to Washington. But the Lakers would be hard-pressed to do better than a package that apparently features Gilbert Arenas and Andray Blatche . . . as long as Gil were willing to agree to extension with his hometown Lakers as opposed to opting out at season’s end.

getting involved in the Kobe Sweepstakes and I’ve since heard that there’s legit smoke here. We’ll have to see what Kobe thinks of sharing a city with the president, since he wields more power than anyone in the NBA with the only active no-trade clause.

Hmmm. Could this be real? I guess they are at least talking about talking about it or something like that right? Now I’m getting a little excited, thinking about possibilities, etc. I love Gilbert as much as the next guy and would hate to see him go…but Kobe in DC? Best player in the league, here? Makes you pause, I’ll tell you that.

Then of course I read in today’s paper that Ernie Grunfield denies it all. Here’s Ernie:

“I don’t normally comment on rumors but there is no truth to this rumor,” Grunfeld said when reached by phone last evening. “We’ve never had any conversations with the Lakers or with anyone else about Gilbert.”

Oh. I guess I didn’t really expect Ernie to say anything differently but still, that kind of kills the fun of considering trade offers, doesnt it? Ivan Carter, WaPo Wizards beat writer extraordinaire, had more on his blog:

(cites Grunfield quote mentioned above) I heard the same from other folks with knowledge of the situation so I really don’t know what to make of Sam’s speculation or similar speculation via Marc Stein at www.espn.com. Now, in terms of Sam, I’ll say this: my man Sam had Kevin Garnett traded to the Bulls around 1,500 times over the last few years. I think he had Iverson moved nearly half as often. That’s Sam’s job: talk to folks around the league and throw out possible trade situations when he hears them. As any reporter will tell you, there are 5,000 “source” rumors for every trade that actually goes down. In the NBA, where many voices are whispering sweet nothings in many an ear, rumor is a way of life.

Here’s why I don’t see a Kobe/Wiz deal going down:

1. Kobe has a no-trade clause, a hefty trade kicker and it appears that his heart is set on Chicago. Now, if something floats out in the next few days that Kobe secretly loves the Redskins, has always wanted to visit Mount Vernon and really digs trips the Smithsonian when visiting the DC, you’ll know that there something is to this rumor. Believe this: Kobe is driving all of this and we’ll all know soon enough if he wants out of LA bad enough to step off the windy city and flirt with chocolate city. Until then, it’s all talk. Now, if Kobe shows up to practice tomorrow wearing a Caron Butler jersey……..

2. Would the Lakers really give up Kobe for a guy who is coming off of knee surgery and can opt out of his deal next summer? Where would that put them in a Western Conference that is top heavy with the Spurs, Suns, Mavs, Nuggets, Jazz and Rockets?

3. I would assume that if the Lakers are doing their jobs, they would demand Andray Blatche in any deal involving Kobe and that isn’t going to happen, not based on the things Blatche showed in preseason. You don’t trade 6-11, 260-pound 21-year olds with that skill set and a five-year contract that is only running you $15 million.
Not in a conference that has LeBron, Luol Deng, Rasheed, KG, Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh, Rashard Lewis, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Josh Smith and assorted other matchup nightmares lurking in every corner. If Blatche reaches his potential, he gives you a five-tool almost 7-footer who is just scratching the surface. Hard to trade that, even for Kobe.

Now, as we all know, things can change and that’s why the first three months of this season are going to be so interesting. By February, the Wizards should have a feel for where Gilbert is on that knee and have a feel for how the rotation is coming together. If Gilbert does his thing and the big three stay healthy and Blatche continues to come along, the Wiz should be one of the top two or three teams in the East and there would be no reason to blow it all up by trying to land Kobe. Also, we’ll know just how hungry Kobe is to go somewhere.

My educated guess is that the Lakers will sit back, see how Kobe reacts early in the season and evaluate their options come February. I do have a feeling that it’s going to kill him watching KG play with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Thing is, KG was put into prison by Kevin McHale while Kobe pretty much did it to himself.

Carter mentions a big sticking point I had in any proposed Arenas for Kobe deal: I love Andray Blatche and consider him close to untouchable. Blatche is going to breakout this year, is signed for the next 5 years at a very reasonable price, and is going to be a 7 foot stud. You can’t involve him in any deal, you just cant. I guess its all moot anyway, which I think is a good thing. But its fun to think about.

After the jump, for no real reason other then I think its interesting, Michael Wilbon’s answers to some questions on this subject in a WaPo Chat House session yesterday.

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