Bill Simmons has brought back the basketball blog and he kicks things off with a sub-pay entry that outlines some trade ideas he has. It reads like a fairly lame effort to get in on the pre-trade deadline buzz but I’d like to focus on the trade idea he has for the Wizards. Heres the trade:
The Clippers trade Sam Cassell, Corey Maggette, Aaron Williams, their 2008 No. 1 (unprotected) and the rights to Minnesota’s No. 1 in 2008 or 2009 to Washington for Gilbert Arenas, Etan Thomas and Washington’s 2008 No. 1 (lottery-protected).
Alright, so lets examine Simmons’ reasoning and take it apart. His words in bold.
First, the Wizards don’t have to spend max money on Gilbert when it’s unclear if he’s a franchise guy for anything other than a fantasy team.
I dont entirely disagree that Gilbert isn’t worth max money but the market is what the market is. When Rashard Lewis gets a contract worth more then $100 million, players like Gilbert are going to get max deals. Thats just the way it is. And I’d give Gilbert the max over Michael Redd or Lewis everyday of the week and twice on Sunday’s.
Second, when you factor in Gilbert’s new contract with the $13 million they’d save by dumping Etan Thomas, they’d save something like $44 million in 2009 and 2010 combined because Cassell, Williams and Maggette are all expiring deals. (Heading into this summer after this deal, when you include Antwan Jamison’s impending free agency, the Wizards would have a paltry $38 million committed to their 2008-09 payroll. … That’s right, more than enough money to sign a name free agent to replace Gilbert.)
This, of course, makes no sense. So we should trade Gilbert and Thomas (note, I am all in favor of trading Thomas) so that we can have a lot of cap room to go out and sign….a “name” free agent to replace Gilbert? Why go through all of the trouble in the first place, why not just keep Gilbert? This only makes sense if there are free agents available this off-season that are on Gilbert’s level.
Lets look at the list of interesting names. There’s Hawks F Josh Smith (restricted), Bulls F Luol Deng and G Ben Gordon (both restricted), Warriors G Monta Ellis (restricted), 76ers G/F Andre Iguodala (restricted). Also Allen Iverson, Baron Davis, Jermaine O’Neal, Elton Brand and Shawn Marion have early termination options in their contracts.
OK so all the good free agents (other then the ones with opt-outs like Arenas) are restricted, meaning their current teams can choose to match any offers they would get from the Wizards. To be charitable to Simmons we’ll throw out that inconvenient fact and just look at the group as a whole, assuming the Wizards would get whom ever they wanted. Even after doing that, who would you sign that would be better then Arenas, even granting the fact that you’d probably get to pay them less then the max? Monta Ellis? He’s cheap now sure but he’s going to want big money and you can’t say he’s better then Arenas. Luol Deng? Nice player but plays the same position as current Wizards All-Star Caron Butler, so he’s out. Ben Gordan? Please, he’s out too. Josh Smith is a nice player, I’d like to have him on my team, but he’s got a lower PER then Butler and Jamison, that doesn’t help the team. Igoudala is intriguing as well, but he’s only 42nd in the league in PER and frankly is a good player on a below average team, not really sure I’m willing to pay him that much to begin with.
As for Iverson, Davis, O’Neal, Brand and Marion (the players who can opt out of their deals) the only player of that bunch I’d want is Marion and again, we already have an All-Star small forward. It would be a great story for Iverson to return to the DC area but he’s not going to leave Denver; O’Neal has been hurt for 4 years and isn’t an elite player (an observation Simmons himself makes in a later trade proposal); Brand is coming off a serious injury and Baron Davis, while dynamic, is also injury prone and he too is going to want max money in all likelihood. So Bill, about that “name” free agent we can sign with all our new cap room, to replace our current two All-Stars? Who are they exactly? Oh, and Corey Maggette has 2 years left on his deal.
Third, those are two fantastic No. 1s they’re getting back — a lottery pick in 2008 and a probable high lottery pick from Minnesota — and they have an All-Star to replace Arenas on and off the court (Caron Butler).
I wouldn’t mind getting some extra lottery picks, really who would? But you don’t pick up lottery picks just for the heck of it, you get them because you want to draft good, young players. Like Gilbert Arenas. And of course there’s no certainty that draft picks work out, as Wizards fans well know.
And fourth, as crazy as this sounds, they’d actually improve their playoff chances this season by getting Cassell and Maggette since it’s doubtful that Arenas comes back, anyway.
This is actually to my mind the LEAST crazy of Simmons’ points. I think Arenas will come back this year, and play well to boot, but having Cassell and Maggette would certainly help now, as banged up as we are. Cassell and Daniels sharing the point with Maggette either pushing Stevenson to the bench and taking the 2 or Corey being the 6 man and providing instant offense is an attractive picture. But not at the expense of giving up your franchise player, who could be around for 10 more years. Talk about thinking short term Bill.
I guess it all depends on what you think of Gilbert. My buddy House (a Wiz fan) argues that Gilbert is far too popular in D.C. to ever get traded, but he uttered a terse “no comment” for my question, “Yeah, that’s fine and all, but would you have fun playing with him?”
Simmons keeps saying this about Arenas and its just as stupid every time. Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison both made the All-Star team this year with Gilbert out of the lineup. They have both also made the All-Star team with Gilbert IN the lineup. Secondary players can and do succeed on teams with Gilbert. Really, you wouldn’t want to play on a team with Arenas? Really? Thats just dumb.
The Clippers reasons for doing this trade further establish how stupid this would be for the Wizards. Again, his points in bold.
In other words, it’s just like every other season. If they don’t swing for the fences with the Cassell/Maggette contracts and their picks and try to acquire a star player, they will continue not to matter.
So now Gilbert is a star player? I thought he wasn’t worth max money and you wouldn’t want to play on his pickup team?
This trade gives them a foundation of Arenas, Elton Brand, Chris Kaman, Al Thornton and Shaun Livingston that’s legitimately exciting on paper (at least until you remember that three of those guys suffered season-ending injuries), as well as an exciting franchise guy (and a local product) who would generate a ton of interest in Los Angeles on and off the court. Let’s face it — Gilbert was born to play in Hollywood. Literally. It’s the perfect place for him.
I used the italics there to doubly illustrate the about face from Simmons’ previous points. Here he calls Gilbert an “exciting franchise guy”, earlier he said he wasn’t worth max money and he’s not fun to play with. Which is it Bill?
Well that was exhausting. Sorry it was so long but thanks for reading. The takeaway from all this is: DONT LISTEN TO BILL SIMMONS AND HIS AWFUL TRADE IDEAS ERNIE GRUNFIELD!
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